COVID-19 Australia – When will it peak?

Disclaimer: We have high levels of expertise in statistical modelling. We are not epidemiologists.

Based on a preliminary analysis of Australian data for the number of COVID-19 infections, we believe there has been a recent slowing down of the rate of infection. If this trend is maintained, we predict the total number of infections in Australia will stabilize around 6,195 by April 20, 2020. Specifically:

  • ACT: 101 cases
  • NSW: 2,795 cases
  • NT: 32 cases
  • QLD: 977 cases
  • SA: 425 cases
  • TAS: 86 cases
  • VIC: 1,296 cases
  • WA: 483 cases

This represents an additional 645 infections (from April 4) and, if we apply the current death rate to this number, that would translate to an additional 7 deaths. However, it is almost certain this figure will be exceeded with the announcement of a further 4 deaths in NSW as this post was being prepared. The Australian death rate (expressed as a fraction of known COVID-19 positive cases) is very low (0.6%) compared to other parts of the world – for example, the death rate in the UK is 10.2% and in the US 2.7%. Globally, the death rate at the time of this posting was 5.4%. Applying this to our prediction suggests the number of deaths in Australia could ultimately be as high as 333.

Actual number of cases (open blue circles) and model predictions (red line) for each Australian state/territory.

Leave a comment