The Burr family of distributions has been used extensively for over 20 years as a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) in ecotoxicology. Indeed, its popularity (at least in Australia and New Zealand) has been guaranteed by the fact that it is a default distribution in the Burrlioz software tool which underpins the methodology for guideline development …
Continue reading “L-Moment estimation of Burr III parameters”
So how did we obtain the predictions made in the previous posts? Well, it’s by a process of complex mathematical modelling. We won’t go into the details here, but instead will try to explain with the help of a few graphs for Victorian data. First – let’s look at the actual number of cases per …
Disclaimer: We have high levels of expertise in statistical modelling. We are not epidemiologists. Modelling is an imprecise science. As renowned statistician G.E.P. Box once remarked “all models are wrong – but some are useful”. In our earlier post of April 5 (see below) we estimated that the number of diagnosed positive cases in Australia …
Updated: April 11, 2020 Disclaimer: We have high levels of expertise in statistical modelling. We are not epidemiologists. Please refer to our previous post for state-by-state predictions for the number of COVID-19 positive test results. We will add actual data to the graphs of model predictions to assess how well we’re tracking. The latest data …
Continue reading “COVID-19: Model comparisons for Australia”
Disclaimer: We have high levels of expertise in statistical modelling. We are not epidemiologists. Based on a preliminary analysis of Australian data for the number of COVID-19 infections, we believe there has been a recent slowing down of the rate of infection. If this trend is maintained, we predict the total number of infections in …